Wind turbines and photovoltaic systems supply more or less energy to the grid depending on good or bad weather conditions. This makes it challenging for transmission grid operators to forecast the amount of supplied energy as accurately as possible in order to maintain a stable grid. Fraunhofer IWES in Kassel, together with the German Meteorological Service (DWD), have developed mathematical models as part of the EWeLiNE project which significantly improve predictions compared to traditional methods.

The EWeLiNE project aims at the development of innovative weather and power forecast models for the grid integration of weather dependent energy sources. The new forecast models developed by IWES and DWD have very high forecast accuracy as well as weather warnings that are adapted to grid operation. This is particularly important in the event of extreme weather conditions such as strong winds. The more accurate the forecast, the better transmission grid operators will be able to maintain a constant balance between power supply and demand within the grid to guarantee a reliable supply.

IWES Energy Forecaster

The partners have now completed the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) sponsored project which started at the end 2012. However, the developments will be continued in the Gridcast follow-up project. Gridcast will primarily work on improving the forecasts for individual transformer stations as well as integrating further information such as satellite images for solar forecasts alongside weather data.

©Photo Fraunhofer IWES
»EnergyForecaster«: Using a demo-platform with an interactive, high spatial resolution map, grid operators can test the new forecast models. The transition to a permanent online operation should be carried out gradually in the next few months.

Read the original press release here.

Fraunhofer IWES and the German Meteorological Service with New Models for More Accurate Weather and Energy Forecasts